Who will be taking on McCain or Hayworth for the Democratic party?

There are four candidates in the US Senate Democratic primary and the first poll on this election shows the entire range for all 4 candidates within the margin of error, which is 4 points.

Poll data from Rasmussen June 2010

Poll data from Rasmussen June 2010

This poll demonstrates a few new things to be on the lookout for in this election cycle:

  1. Traditional ways of running elections are changing. Despite one candidate spending at least an order of magnitude more than some of the other candidates, the race is still a statistical dead-heat.
  2. One’s stance, or lack of a strong stance, on SB1070 and other recently signed bills will be a major issue in the primary.
  3. SB1070 may have been the alarm clock for the proverbial sleeping giant. Events such as Alto Arizona had around a hundred-thousand people marching to the state capitol, and that’s only a fraction of the people who are fed up with the direction Arizona is heading and that John McCain is supporting. Expect the demographics of the voting population to change considerably.
  4. This race is still anyone’s to win, and will be dependent on who gets the majority of the undecided voters to break the current 4-way statistical tie.

All in all, the Democratic primary has transformed from being a boring no-contest race to one with 4 candidates running. This is what democracy is all about, and it also looks like there will finally be a debate in Phoenix on July 9th. Two other debates are also planned, one in Flagstaff and one in Tucson, but there is no word yet on whether all 4 candidates will be in attendance, but at least 3 of the 4 will be there.

It is going to be a fun primary race to watch, especially since the winner will be taking on the winner of the McCain/Hayworth/Deakin race, and there are sure to be fireworks long after July 4th!

Who will the clear front-runner be? Only time will tell…



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12 comments on “Who will be taking on McCain or Hayworth for the Democratic party?
  1. Thanks for this update on this Democratic U.S. Senate candidate debate schedule.  Looks like a wide open field for now with no clear front runner.
    Let’s hope there’s a debate in Tucson, between all four contenders, and you could tape it for our readers, David.

  2. You know I will do my best to record it… it will be on TV so if nothing else I’ll just post the link to the web version, but I don’t know about the debates in Tucson or Flagstaff.  If they let me, I’ll record it myself and post it 🙂

    • If  KUAT Az Illustrated does a debate with these four, I could post that video link as well.  This has indeed turned out to be a great race with four such well educated people (two lawyers, two Ph.D.s, and an investigative reporter who has two bachelors degrees as well).

  3. Just got Press release from John Dougherty:”A series of three debates is scheduled for three of the four candidates running in the Arizona Democratic primary race for the U.S. Senate.Candidates confirmed to participate include investigative journalist John Dougherty, Scottsdale attorney Randy Parraz and Arizona State University administrator Cathy Eden. A fourth candidate, Rodney Glassman, has not responded to invitations to participate, initially sent June 2 by Dougherty.The Dougherty, Eden and Parraz campaigns have tentatively set up three debates: Friday July 9 in Phoenix on KTVK Channel 3; Wednesday July 21 on National Public Radio’s Yuma affiliate, KAWC; and Thursday August 5 on National Public Television-affiliate KUAT in Tucson. The times and details will be announced soon.Glassman has not responded to two invitations by Dougherty to debate, but media reports have quoted Glassman saying he was seeking a more suitable “sponsor” for the debates.According to Channel 3 officials in Phoenix, the 32-year-old Tucson businessman has agreed to participate in the Phoenix debate. He also told a Tucson blogger he would participate.Glassman, who has substantial personal wealth derived from his family’s agribusiness and fertilizer manufacturing enterprises in Fresno, Calif., has not communicated his decision to his opponents. “–David, not sure whom they mean by “Tucson blogger”, wouldn’t be Blake Morlock, Glassman’s PR man.

  4. Did you make this graph? Your numbers are off, Glassman is at 12% and 14% prefer some other candidate. Your graph doesn’t represent those numbers accurately. Other numbers look inaccurate as well. What gives?

    • I did make the graph and it’s in 3D… I didn’t consider the issue that you present when I made it, just using default settings, but the numbers are indeed accurate… if you draw a line from a top edge of the bar and extend it to the back wall where the numbers are, you will get the numbers you seek. Notice the shadow behind the bars that show that the back wall is not touching the bars…

What do you think?

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