With the advent of cell phones, traditional polling accuracy has taken a nosedive.
Nevertheless, results from polls can still be a bit informative. In the CD 7 race in Arizona, what the polls are suggesting is that reelection for 8 year incumbent Raul Grijalva is not guaranteed against 28 year old Ruth McClung, a self-described “rocket scientist” who works at Raytheon.
If a Bachelors degree in Physics makes one a rocket scientist, then does a Bachelors degree in physiology make one a brain surgeon?
Some polls even have Grijalva down by 2 points to McClung, who has the support of Sarah Palin and both McCain and Kyl and is the new champion of the TEA Party in Southern Arizona. She has no previous experience with politics unless you count captain of her high school swim team as relevant experience.
In my own opinion, I think Grijalva will win by at least 10 points.
Polls don’t take more liberal voters into account, younger people with cell phones only and no landlines, and there has been a massive voter registration effort to get out the Latino vote.
I think that while Raul should not take the election for granted, his own grassroots army will pull off another victory for the godfather of Southern Arizona politics.
That is, if all the thousands of new voters actually vote this time around…